September 2026: The World Today, As Seen By One Polish Guy

The Strait of Hormuz closure is driving a broad supply shock, according to a Sept. 26 report by Polish writer Tom Wojcik, which traces effects on fuel prices, fertiliser, harvests and European energy security. The report says tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent since Iran closed it in March, after U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February.

The report follows the effects across several markets. Brent crude rose to near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and $108 on Sept. 24, after a fragile ceasefire that had pulled prices back to pre-war levels broke down. On Sept. 22, Iran presented Washington with a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the U.S. naval blockade. Washington rejected it, the report says.

Shipping costs have also surged. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, which tracks crude-tanker hiring costs, gained more than 600 percent in the first two months of the war and was up more than 2,300 percent for 2026 by early September. Some supertanker day rates reached about $860,000 on Sept. 10, compared with less than $100,000 before the war. The fund’s manager has said rates would fall if the strait reopened, according to the report.

The report also describes pressure on fuel and food systems. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have cut output, while France saw 15 percent of petrol stations run out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The French government ruled out a national shortage; many affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, whose price cap drew more customers. Separately, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization warned that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.

Fuel Costs Reach Food and Heating

The report’s central point is that disruption in one shipping route can affect several parts of daily life at once. Higher oil prices raise transport and fuel costs, while fertiliser shortages may affect future crop yields. For households and governments, the timing matters: fuel pressures are occurring before winter heating demand, while harvest impacts may become clearer only after crops planted during the disruption are gathered.

Wojcik writes from Poland, which he describes as bordering Europe’s largest war since 1945 and relying on coal and imported gas for heating. He frames the current pressures as a test of systems built around international suppliers and limited reserves. That is his analysis; the figures in the report document specific market movements and supply concerns, but do not by themselves establish the scale of future shortages.

A Fragile Ceasefire Collapsed

U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, according to the report. Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed since March, using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. The passage normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, as well as a major share of oil shipments. The International Energy Agency calls the disruption the largest supply disruption the oil market has ever seen.

A ceasefire briefly brought prices down in early summer, but it did not hold. The report also points to the Bab al-Mandab, a Red Sea chokepoint used by shipping detouring around the Gulf, where Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port in September. These developments add risks to alternative routes. The report supplies no detailed independent assessment of how much cargo is currently moving through each route.

“The world is not ending. But for thirty years we swapped buffers for dependencies”

— Tom Wojcik

The Duration and Scale Remain Unknown

The report does not establish when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, whether negotiations will resume, or whether military operations will intensify. It says one report indicated the U.S. president expected bombing to resume after the November midterm elections, but that remains an attributed report about a future possibility, not a confirmed decision.

The eventual effects on food supplies also remain uncertain. The FAO warning concerns possible yield losses and tighter supplies through late 2026 and into 2027; the report does not quantify the resulting price changes or identify how much fertiliser will be unavailable. It also notes that the official French station count may understate local gaps because a station is counted only when it has run out of every petrol grade or of diesel.

Watch Talks, Shipments and Harvests

The next signals are whether Washington and Tehran return to negotiations, whether the strait and alternative shipping routes reopen, and how tanker rates respond. A reopening could ease shipping costs, though the report says the ETF’s manager expects rates to fall if that happens. Continued disruption would keep pressure on fuel markets.

Over the coming months, crop yields and food prices will show how much the fertiliser shortfall affected production. European governments and households will also be watching fuel availability and winter heating supplies. The report’s figures are a snapshot through Sept. 26, 2026; conditions may change as diplomacy, shipping and harvests develop.

Key Questions

What is the main development?

Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed since March, sharply reducing tanker traffic and contributing to pressure on oil, shipping and fertiliser supplies, according to the report.

How high did oil prices reach?

Brent crude touched $108 a barrel on Sept. 24, after reaching around $97 in early September and about $105 by mid-month, the report says.

Does France have a national fuel shortage?

The French government ruled out a national shortage. On Sept. 20, 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel, with many affected sites belonging to TotalEnergies, according to the report.

Could the disruption affect food supplies?

The FAO warns that fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The eventual scale of those effects is not yet established.

When might the strait reopen?

The report gives no confirmed reopening date. Washington rejected an Iranian proposal for a phased reopening as part of a ceasefire plan on Sept. 22.

Source: hn